Last grownup standing: why Obama will be re-elected.

As big a disappointment as Obama has been and as much as of a disaster as Obama has been, he is likely to be re-elected in 2012 because every other possible candidate and almost all major national political figures have abdicated that most basic position: grownup.

In the less than two months that John Boehner has been Speaker of the House of Representatives he may have already become even more objectionable than his predecessor Nancy Pelosi as impossible as that may seem at first glance.

Obama actually sounds like he is in control of his emotions and thinking rationally.  Obama seems intelligent and knowledgeable.  Obama seems respectful of both his supporters and opponents.  Obama seems to consider the impact of both what he does and what he says.  Plus, Obama is already president, making everything he does and says seem grownup.

The other basic thing that will help Obama get re-elected is that you cannot beat somebody with nobody.  Right now his opponents have a bunch of nobodies who seem intent on remaining nobodies, pandering to the most basic biases of the American people to the detriment of the country.  While the American people have continually and consistently demonstrated their willingness to act against their own best interests, it does not enhance presidential aspirations to join in that counterproductive exercise.  You may get elected that way but you cannot improve conditions once in office because you will be expected to act as a non-grownup, something that will surely fail and ultimately earn the wrath of the American people.

While you'll never consistently lose elections by underestimating the foolhardiness of the American people, you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.  The chickens will come home to roost. The American people will waste votes in inverse proportion to the seriousness of the office, with president being the post least likely to get votes for candidates who have less than 40% chance of winning, i.e., getting less than 40% of the popular vote.

If the 2012 presidential election is between a grownup and one of the non-grownups, the grownup wins.