Thursday, November 6, 2008

Landslide elections: certainty, not knowledge.

I would not classify Obama's win over McCain in 2008 as a landslide. Big, but not a landslide. Franklin D. Roosevelt had 60.8% of the popular vote to Alf Landon`s 36.5% in the 1936 presidential election. Roosevelt had 523 electoral votes to Landon's 8. That's a landslide. Since 1936 here are the obvious landslides based on popular vote: Lyndon Johnson's 61.1% to Barry Goldwater's 38.5% in 1964. Richard Nixon's 60.7% to George McGovern's 37.5% in 1972. Ronald Reagan's 58.8% to Walter Mondale's 40.6% in 1984. Here are some really big wins since 1936 based on electoral votes: Franklin D. Roosevelt's 449 to Wendell Willkie's 82 in 1940. Franklin D. Roosevelt's 432 to Thomas Dewey's 99 in 1944. Dwight D. Eisenhower's 442 to Adlai Stevenson's 89 in 1952. Dwight D. Eisenhower's 457 to Adlai Stevenson's 73 in 1956. Richard Nixon's 520 to George McGovern's 17 in 1972. Ronald Reagan's 489 to Jimmy Carter's 49 in 1980. Other than Roosevelt's three and Johnson's one every other landslide or really big win was by a Republican. Why? We should want our decisions to be based on knowledge, not certainty. However, those voting for the Republican candidate were certain of their positions, especially since 1968. Votes based on knowledge are more tenuous. Certainty let's us do terrible things. Nazis were certain. See my previous post on dumb guys.

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